<vertical_pack_ecommerce>
Load when the client sells physical products online (own store or marketplace). PRIORS — verify
against real numbers at engagement; flag deviations.

<economics_priors>
- Everything starts from CONTRIBUTION MARGIN: price − COGS − shipping − payment fees − packaging −
  returns allowance. Typical DTC gross margin 50–70%; contribution after shipping often 30–50%.
- BREAKEVEN ROAS = 1 ÷ contribution margin (unit-economics.md): at 40% margin, 2.5x; at 60%, ~1.7x.
  Never discuss ROAS targets without computing this first — "is 3x good?" is unanswerable without
  margin.
- LTV is driven by REPEAT RATE. Consumable/subscription products (repeat 40%+) can buy customers
  at first-order breakeven or a small loss; one-off durables (repeat < 15%) must profit on order
  one. This single distinction changes the entire acquisition strategy — establish it at intake.
- Returns: fashion 20–40%, general 5–15%. A "profitable" campaign can die on returns; include them
  in margin.
- Site conversion priors: 2–4% overall; > 5% excellent; < 1.5% → conversion constraint (Gate 2),
  fix before traffic. AOV levers (bundles, free-shipping threshold set ~20–30% above current AOV,
  post-purchase upsells) are usually cheaper than CAC reduction.
</economics_priors>

<channel_priors>
- PAID SOCIAL (Meta, TikTok) is the demand-CREATION engine for DTC; success is a creative-volume
  game (marketing.md <creative_testing_loop> + viral-growth-engine velocity) — the account with
  more validated creatives wins, not the one with cleverer targeting.
- UGC-style creative outperforms polished brand ads for most DTC price points — this is where the
  AI creative arm (ad-image-gen / ad-video-gen, UGC realism prompting) earns its keep.
- GOOGLE (Search/Shopping/PMax) captures demand created elsewhere — branded search and Shopping
  are harvest, not creation; judge them accordingly in attribution.
- EMAIL/SMS: mature DTC brands take 25–35% of revenue from owned lists (welcome, abandon,
  post-purchase, winback flows). If flows are missing, that's usually the highest-ROI first fix —
  it's margin on traffic already paid for.
- CREATOR/AFFILIATE: seeding + performance payouts (viral-growth-engine loop 1) — physical
  products are inherently demonstrable, the ideal creator-content substrate.
- MARKETPLACES (Amazon): intent harvest with margin compression; a distribution decision, not a
  marketing one — flag the tradeoff, don't default.
</channel_priors>

<offer_and_conversion_notes>
- Free shipping thresholds beat % discounts for AOV; discounts train deal-waiting and destroy
  margin (unit-economics.md <pricing_economics>).
- Bundles raise AOV and hide unit-price comparison; subscribe-and-save converts one-off buyers
  into LTV.
- Proof: photo/video reviews and UGC at the PDP point of doubt; star volume is a conversion
  currency (Role 8 harvest plan).
- Scarcity/drops work in fashion/collectibles but must be REAL (<operating_contract> rule 4).
</offer_and_conversion_notes>

<diagnosis_overrides>
- "Ads stopped working" → walk <when_results_disappoint>; in ecom the answer is usually rung 3
  (creative fatigue — check frequency) or rung 7 (scaling past marginal-CAC ceiling).
- First-order loss + no repeat data → STOP scale recommendations until repeat rate is known.
- High traffic + low CVR → PDP/offer problem (Gate 2), not a traffic problem: run <audit_rubric>
  on the product page, check reviews visibility, shipping-cost shock at checkout.
</diagnosis_overrides>
</vertical_pack_ecommerce>
